I checked the reports but don’t find their coal sale volumes over the years. Is this available? Or do we need the annual reports of Southern Coal ltd, if available..
Coal is not really at a low price and could come down more.
The stock sold between 0.5 p/b and 1.5 during the last 10 years. It is at 1.2 now.
But another risk I see is their 2 customers account for 89% of the revenues. Losing one would but a disaster. I would need more information.
At first sight I think the upside potential seems not enough compared to the downside. But maybe I miss something.
The current ebit/EV is cheap indeed, but ebit might come down.
If I look at the average FCF over the years, it seems correctly priced for a company without growth with some risks.
Hello Ruerd, thank you for sharing.
I checked the reports but don’t find their coal sale volumes over the years. Is this available? Or do we need the annual reports of Southern Coal ltd, if available..
Coal is not really at a low price and could come down more.
The stock sold between 0.5 p/b and 1.5 during the last 10 years. It is at 1.2 now.
But another risk I see is their 2 customers account for 89% of the revenues. Losing one would but a disaster. I would need more information.
At first sight I think the upside potential seems not enough compared to the downside. But maybe I miss something.
The current ebit/EV is cheap indeed, but ebit might come down.
If I look at the average FCF over the years, it seems correctly priced for a company without growth with some risks.
Gr Johan from Belgium
All fair comments. What I do is managing risks by investing in many companies that are cheap on a statistical basis using very small positions.
Ok yes then you diversify those risks indeed. You beat the market long term i guess :) good luck!